Sujeev Shakya

Articles & Publications

21 Apr 2020
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The Nepali economy will bounce back quick

April 21, 2020 No Comments

More in-depth analyses and multi-dimensional perspectives are required.

All media platforms across the world are filled with analyses on the impact of Covid-19 and the resultant lockdowns on economies. Job losses in the US have made the headlines. There are doomsday prophecies to be found everywhere. It is too early to say what will be the impact, but I do not tend to agree with the naysayers. The economy will rebound to surprise all of us.

For Nepal, it is important to understand the nature of our economy and businesses. It cannot be swayed by numbers being generated in economies it is not connected to. We should not forget that in 2015, the economy was hit with a major earthquake and subsequently by a blockade. The supply chain and job disruptions that time were harsh. In the aftermath, we thought Nepalis will be hit by conscience in terms of spending on social events, not building unsafe structures and preserving open spaces. We were all proved wrong. The exorbitant spending post-2015 actually pushed our economic growth numbers. Similarly, we need to quell haphazard analyses and look at the key issues on our own.

Understanding tourism

We need to dispel the popular notion that Nepal is dependent on international tourism. On the contrary, research shows that 64 percent of the tourism revenues come from domestic tourists. Nepalis are not going to sacrifice their travel, sekuwa and booze after this for sure; rather than travelling outside Nepal, which will be a challenge for some time, the domestic movement will increase.

Data from hotel sales suggest that big hotels in Kathmandu and other big cities have their revenue driven by domestic social events like marriages and family events. It has become a societal necessity to a certain portion of the population to have multiple functions like wedding anniversaries, multiple-day wedding functions, baby shower parties, birthdays and any other functions—seemingly an attempt to emulate Indian soap operas. Along with events hosted by domestic organisations, nearly two-thirds of revenue and profitability of these hotels came from these domestic sources. These segments may be impacted until social distancing rules remain, but we definitely will not see Nepalis suddenly having events with 51 guests only. In Nepali society, like in some other societies, spending is not only about celebration, but an opportunity to show off one’s wealth and networks. Therefore, it will be important to back analysis with data.

In the context of international tourism, the bookings in China after July are looking good. For Nepal, the China market will be the one to watch post-October. With China’s ambitious soft diplomacy plans, and plans to keep its airlines afloat, we may see a large number of tourists that may travel with state support. Similarly, for Indians, the religious tourism component will dramatically increase, especially if Nepal can get over this crisis with minimal damages to lives and livelihood. We already have theories on why this former Hindu kingdom has not been hit so hard due to the great gods and goddesses that protect it.

Understanding migration

The other big component stoking fears is an end to labour migration. But it is very hard to believe that people from host countries like the UAE and Qatar will actually get around to doing their own dishes. Their lives have been engineered to depend on workers from outside; this will not change. There may be a hiatus, but the demand will not end. For many workers who are now stranded in Nepal or may not want to go back, domestic job openings will increase. Let us not forget that, officially, there were 600,000 Indian workers in Nepal before this crisis began and there are opportunities for Nepali workers to prove that they can also work with the same productivity and accept the same wages as Indian workers. Nepalis are known for their resilience—and their ability to find work and thrive even in highly unsafe countries such as Iraq and South Sudan.

If there is a challenge at hand, it will come from those that I brand ‘DV nationalists’ who are now stuck in the country. These are the breed of people who are desperate to leave Nepal, who never consider living here, but are the ones who flood social media walls with ultra-nationalist slogans. Nearly 100,000 people who go to Australia, UK and US to seek generally long term settlement through student visas (peddled well by the education consultancy industry) will be ones who see the chances of going abroad shrinking. We have seen only a small percentage of them actually return to Nepal to work or settle down.

In another month, it will be clear where the country is heading. Nepalis need to look back and think of all the difficult situations we have persevered through in the past. This one is a different one, but it will pass. 

07 Apr 2020
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Lockdown Musings

April 7, 2020 No Comments

This is the best reflective time we have got—everyone needs to use it productively.

This has been bizarre and unprecedented. We are connected virtually to the world but we are isolated in our houses. It has surely helped people to reflect on many things. While social media is providing all sorts of news, views, prophecies, predictions and humour, people are learning how to live in a world where uncertainty and anxiety rule. Nepal’s fate is very much tied to India’s during such times; our land border can bring goods and people from either side but can also bring in the virus, SARS-CoV-2.

We were not too worried when Covid-19 was a big issue in China, we continued to allow flights from our northern neighbour. Our major sources of news and views are not from China, and with a complex system of information dissemination, we do not have accurate information from the country. Even if the information is being shared, we question its authenticity and credibility. Nepalis started to panic only when the pandemic hit Australia, Europe, the Middle East, Canada and then the US. Almost every Nepali family would have someone within their first degree of contact that resides in those countries.

A yearning for a home

The pandemic hit Nepal when it started to impact Nepalis across the world. The sense of identity became important as, at these tough times, it is only the country whose passport you hold that becomes a true source of hope and comfort. Therefore, the worst-hit are the Nepalis who have been living without proper papers in different parts of the world. The mass exodus from India also reflects this behaviour; it is not only about going hungry, but in case of the worst-case scenario medical teams will start to choose—naturally they will choose their own citizens before others. In Italy, this choice sadly became based on age, where younger people were being treated at the cost of the elderly. I hope that no other country will have to take such decisions.

The lockdown is the new normal and we are not sure how long it will continue. People are getting used to new ways of life. Working from home is possible for knowledge workers; people are discovering newer platforms to keep connected. With electricity and the internet being available in abundance, many services continue. However, people who work in small private sector firms or have jobs in shops, eateries, hotels, and still others who run small businesses, are already being impacted. Some of them are innovating through providing the home delivery of goods, but this is a very small segment.

The people in such sectors will need to dip into their savings—if they have any—for at least a good four to six months; rarely do government programmes reach the people who are in need. Further, a majority of the large Nepali private sector players, in the past, during the most trying times, have demonstrated they just do not have large hearts. In the end, it is the social structure of Nepal through families, friends and well-wishers that will help to tide this situation.

The few positives

It is nice to see the social media space also being plastered with pictures of the skyline devoid of pollution, the birds chirping and with clear views of the Himalayas. We in Kathmandu are suddenly realising why many visitors in the seventies and eighties used to refer to this valley as being air-conditioned. The climate control button does not always need to be in human hands—nature is giving us a climate where we do not need any heating or cooling. The complete shutdown of construction and traffic is providing our eyes, ears and nose with a calm not experienced in decades.

We realise how picturesque the valley remains with the greenery and flowers. Perhaps, we realise in the quest of getting the last anna of land when a family property is being divided or trying to get the government, guthi and public land to build and extend our structures: did we do the right thing? In these unprecedented times, we are also witnessing social change. As women are forced to work from home as well as work at home, more and more men are stepping up—or being forced to step up—to help with household chores.

On the macro scale, it is time to think of replicating the mindset of reflection we have created during lockdown to see how this can be used when we think of climate change, consumption, following traffic rules, construction norms and our overall greed for more land and property. Whenever this lockdown comes to an end, we need to ensure that the reopening needs to occur in a staggered way. It will be important to keep Nepal isolated for some time from international passenger flights, though emergency flights and cargo flights need to continue with the right protocols.

The land borders need to be regulated; there has never been a better time to begin keeping proper records of people who are crossing the border on both sides. This is not a new thought—it was recommended in the report of Eminent Persons Group for India and Nepal. Now, India will also realise that this is not only in Nepal’s interest but its own as well. Of course, we have to also ensure that we have goods flowing two ways, as that keeps a lot of smaller businesses on both sides of the border going. The effects of the 2015 blockade, though largely felt in Nepal, also impacted the Indian side right across the border. We need to have a plan for the gradual easing of activities, but social and religious gatherings will still need to be curtailed for a long time to come. We can again learn from Singapore, who just released their circuit breaker guidelines—which ensures further distancing. 

24 Mar 2020
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Get the small things right

March 24, 2020 No Comments

During such trying times, citizens need to trust the government. Portraying professionalism would help.

On Friday, March 20, I saw a tweet from the press advisor to the prime minister, announcing that Prime Minister KP Oli would be speaking to the nation at 6 pm on the same day. During such trying and confusing times, I try to look for what the government is saying rather than depend on the barrage of messages that flood different social media and connectivity platforms. I put on Nepal Television channel and waited for Oli to appear; it was only at 6:09 pm that the live telecast started (I am not sure whether a few minutes were truncated as it began abruptly). In times of crisis, nine minutes is a long time. I immediately tweeted—tagging all of Oli’s advisors—that, like washing hands, we need to get the small things right. It does not matter who is in government, but the country has to be able to rely on the government.

Only in a time of crisis, like now, is when the head of government becomes the most important person in the country. A speech from the prime minister of Singapore brought about calm in the island nation. In Rwanda, the president has taken it upon himself to show the citizens how to wash hands. There is a belief in what the leaders say in that country because the leaders’ reputations are solid. But here, in Nepal, when an important broadcast to the nation begins late, it is very difficult to believe that the government will act in time when there is a crisis. All crises present great opportunities to leaders. We Nepalis are already big fans of Oli’s personal resilience—fighting his health condition and emerging victorious. Yet, we need to see this extend to the conduct of national affairs.

An official designated handle

Recently, a two-page announcement attributed to the government was floating on social media, initially shared by some officials. However, the points made in the announcement did not hold true for even an hour. The SEE examinations, which were not supposed to be postponed as per the document, were postponed. Because the government does not have an official handle for different social media platforms for all communications, it seems the prime minister’s key aides began competing to show who is more close to the source of the news. It is important that we now have an official handle across all platforms; those close to the prime minister and the federal government should share the official version of all announcements through that avenue, so that all can take a cue and share said information. The state also needs to take action against those who are spreading false news—many of the rumour manufacturers are high-profile people.

We also need to release information in multiple languages, both local and global. With unofficial translations doing the round, confusion reigned supreme. An example of this could be seen after the government announced the closure of all incoming international flights into Nepal beginning March 20, midnight. Many, including foreigners who work in Nepal, were confused whether the cut-off meant passengers couldn’t come in from 12 am on March 20 (Friday night) or from 11:59 pm (Saturday night).

Foreign missions in Nepal are also grappling with the challenge of being accountable for so many citizens who are stuck. Consequently, Nepali missions abroad are bombarded with questions. For Nepal, it is good to recognise the other languages of Nepal beyond the token two pages that appear in Gorkhapatra once in a while. Guidance needs to be disseminated in audio, video and print format across all platforms in different languages. If the government does not have the resources (the first excuse we will hear), it would be prudent to designate voluntary organisations who are willing to take up this task.

Trust and resilience

We do not live in a world where neighbours will fight for tissue paper and hand sanitizer. We have a strong social ecosystem. During the earthquake, despite the news of epidemics breaking out, or after the Royal Massacre, when the insurgents spread rumours of milk being poisoned to panic valley residents, we reached out to, and helped, each other. In times of crisis, our bathrooms, kitchens and rooms do not remain our own. In the worst-hit places of the earthquake, people helped each other to provide food to volunteers who came to help. Many of the selfie-maniacs (the ones that took selfies instead of providing relief) were shocked, as people who went to provide food were given food in return. We went through difficult times during the Indian blockade of 2015, and let us not forget we had a dismal power supply situation then. At least now, we can keep our induction stoves going without batting an eyelid, we can work from home as we know there will be electricity to power our modems and internet connections. We need to also reflect on how fortunate we are while we also prepare for any eventualities.

The private sector has an opportunity

The private sector in Nepal has the notorious reputation of using times of crisis to hoard, artificially inflate prices, ask for excessive government support and then convert it into an opportunity for themselves. Many people accuse me of generalising trends in the Nepali private sector. But since no one comes out to speak openly against these wrongdoers, we need to assume that the majority of businesspersons and industrialists can be put into this basket. While we have a great history of philanthropy, both through religion and culture, we have not heard of the most affluent among us coming out and announcing any actions or contributions.

Businesses that will be impacted will need support in the form of tax and interest relief, but the people who can contribute something without hurting their financial position must go ahead and help the government in these times. Similarly, this is not a time to think of how the private foundations—usually set up to complete token corporate social responsibility tasks—will make money out of this crisis (some of those who similarly profited during the earthquake will likely be scheming already).

The private sector needs to help the government to ensure that supply chains are not disrupted. And, in a case of extremes, private hospitals and healthcare providers should be willing to work under unified command and direction. Every one of us has a role to take on during a crisis—an emergency that we have not created but that has engulfed the world all the same. Like we used our resilience, common sense and community approach to get over crises of the past, we shall overcome this one, too.

10 Mar 2020
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What we can learn from Covid-19

March 10, 2020 No Comments

Every challenge teaches us lessons; it will be important to be prepared to tackle the next one that comes without notice.

When news of the novel coronavirus first came from Wuhan, the world got busy talking about how China’s political system had allowed a virus to hit its economy and how its political system is not suited for the 21st century. In New York and Boston, I heard of it being a China problem. Of course, the commentators pointed out that a few other underdeveloped countries like Nepal also needed to be wary of it. From what has come out of traditional and social Chinese media outlets, it seems that China has been able to do something that other countries would not have been able to do easily—control the spread. More than a month later, today, the virus has spread to different countries—from Iran to Italy as well as Korea and Japan. Paranoia has gripped countries like Australia, the US and other countries where people have already started panic buying—hoarding stuff in anticipation that they might soon be in short supply.

Comparing my observations while travelling the US and various Asian countries in 2003 and now, the reaction to SARS—a highly contagious, serious and potentially life-threatening form of pneumonia that went viral 17 years ago—was different. If social media had been a thing in 2003, the world would have shut down. During Ebola, I was flying in and out of Rwanda to different parts of the world, having difficulty explaining that Ebola has hit a small part of West Africa in a continent that is huge and not very well-connected. This time, travelling through Bangkok, Singapore and Indonesia, I noticed different reactions again, along with the barrage of posts in social media. Here are some of the lessons that I learnt.

Understand the source of news

People tired of Hindu fanatics in India were sharing how politicians and god brokers (people who broker relationships with their idea of god) were coming out with nonsensical solutions to the virus. There were people sharing what to do and what not to do. Few sane people were forwarding official messages from the World Health Organisation and credible public health practitioners. In many parts, xenophobia and racism against Asians emerged. There have been hearty jokes that have kept us sane during the period. But the big lesson is that social media can be a two-edged sword. While the same platform helped people to learn and understand, it also became a platform to spread fear, hatred and doomsday prophecies.

In Nepal, the tourism minister and his cronies, trying their best to keep the money-spinner running, even started a campaign on how Nepal is safe. In less than a month, they had to postpone their entire tourism campaign. In Bangkok, the news of the shortage of masks and the recycling of masks went viral on local social media platforms. While some people stayed indoors, some went on with their daily life. Human beings have different choices, some prefer to look at the source of news and act rationally but some get swayed by what they see on their phones. In Singapore, a video clip from the prime minister calmed the country. The credibility of leaders count. In Nepal, we do not even listen to our gods, forget our leaders.

Planning and execution

An important takeaway from Singapore is that it is important to put the best minds together with a plan and execute with precision. At the airport, thermal screenings of passengers coming in from China took place, along with the isolation of those exhibiting symptoms. But that was done in the most systematic way possible. There were the guidelines on Business Continuity Planning issued, wherein groups of people stayed at home and other groups came to the office. This helped facilitate the tracking of people and isolate people in case anyone from the group was infected. Each building I entered had temperature checking and recording and taking of pictures so that they could track the movement of people. People did not think this as in irritant but cooperated fully.

The guidelines were clear and covered even minute things like having a regulation on not shaking hands, as to lower contact with people. However, for such a system to work, as I discussed in other countries, people require to really trust their government. They need to have confidence in the government’s decision, the health facilities they have created and the way they care for the citizens. Governments in Singapore and Hong Kong provided some handouts to citizens in cash to cope with the difficult situation. There can be governments that are bigger and richer, but to garner the trust is quite difficult.

Learning from the world

In Nepal, we forget things quickly. Just five years ago, the country was hit by a massive earthquake, but we have started building structures in the same old haphazard fashion. We have allowed the encroachment of open spaces—areas that would have been perfect for people to gather in during times of emergency. On social media, we put up posts about how scary the world has become due to the virus, but are secretly happy to attend large gatherings at banquet halls and public places where the washrooms, which are not in the best condition, can spread multiple diseases, let alone Covid-19

We are yet to look at the economic impact of the ongoing pandemic on Nepal’s tourism. As with many other parts of the world, the biggest outbound market, from China, is affected and so are multiple inbound markets. In a largely import-dependent consumption-oriented society, the largest producer of products in the world has been impacted; it will leave a big lasting impact.

Every human challenge teaches us lessons; it will be important to be better prepared to take on the next challenge that comes without notice. Disaster preparedness is not just an external, money-making programme—it is about building up the credibility of the country and winning the trust of the people. It is also about self-learning and community outreach. We need to change ourselves, and then share our learnings with the rest of the world.

25 Feb 2020
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The cartel of accountants

February 25, 2020 No Comments

How a profession that led the reforms in 1990 is becoming an impediment to change now.

Last week, I was inundated with text messages and emails from people who were contesting the elections of the Association of Chartered Accountants of Nepal (ACAN). During election time, the organisation is abuzz with activity, unlike the rest of the time when the members are pretty dormant. The candidates actually pay the fees that are due, host parties and spend a lot of money. Like with many other voluntary organisations, candidates spend a lot on campaigning—but no one can explain why. Winning candidates must have found a way to dip their fingers into the gravy train. The foundations of corruption begin here. Chartered accountants have started to be associated with graft and politics in Nepal.

An elite club

When I qualified as a chartered accountant in 1992, I was the 75th in Nepal to do so. In those days, it was very prestigious to become a CA. I completed this programme not to become an accountant or do audits, but because it was a great way to move up the social ladder, gain recognition and build a network. It was an elite club to join. Chartered accountants then got direct entry to senior positions in government and other organisations. It wasn’t very easy to get through the exams; only 2 percent of the people who sat for the examinations qualified. Most Nepalis would pursue Indian certification, and it was known to be one of the difficult ones around the world. It was also the time when Nepal opened up to the world with reforms.

Chartered accountants like Robin Sharma led the government’s privatisation programmes. Chartered accountants helped to write new pieces of legislation, and international companies were impressed with the quality of accountants available as Nepal opened up to foreign direct investment. There was intense competition to perform better. Chartered accountants like Prithvi Bahadur Pande went on to lead a revolution in banking in the country. Later, others like Ratna Raj Bajracharya followed suit. At the Soaltee Hotel, where I used to work then, chartered accountants held vital positions. The current chairman of the hotel, Dinesh Bista, is a chartered accountant.

The profession brought about professionalism and adherence to global standards; it was about taking Nepal to the world and competing in other markets. Chartered accountants like Shashi Satyal and Madan Sharma and their firms started extending their service abroad. It was a great fraternity to be associated with. However, now, with the politics involved, I do not even mention that I am a CA anymore—such has been the profession’s fall of grace.

A slide in quality

The Association of Chartered Accountants of Nepal in the 1990s brought about the push for Nepal to have its own institute, and there began the fall in quality. With the political transitions occurring, political party members started to lead the institutes. And with such persons sitting on many key regulatory bodies like the Securities Board, the problems began. Companies that raised money from the public went bust; there were disciplinary cases filed against erring firms and individuals. There were cases of negligence filed, but no one was ever convicted. All over the world, this profession is regulated by bodies comprising of members. But like everything else in Nepal, the association turned into a cartel. It wasn’t long before everyone involved began rent-seeking activities.

The elections to this association—and to similar associations covering skilled professions—have become very important. For instance, the vote here paves the way for people to then get on to the governing regulatory body—the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nepal. Many elected members have been accused of malpractice and graft. It is also apparent which politicians and political parties are backing particular members.

Today, the quality of chartered accountants churned out of by Nepal is such that they are not job-ready. The higher economic activity and the increased demand means that many are getting jobs. But this new crop has been demanding more money while becoming less productive. Their soft and basic skills are a challenge: some of them are not able to write a single grammatically correct sentence in English (a necessary language for the field).

Those frustrated by the profession leave Nepal for greener pastures. The irony is that Nepalis are performing very well as accountants in Australia, the UK, the US and other countries. In foreign countries, Nepalis work for international accounting firms. This shows that it is not that Nepalis do not have the required talent; the problem is that incompetent individuals are changing the rules of the game and keeping the competent folks out. Nepali nationalism is being used to hide inefficiencies, and the unqualified professionals have now become the biggest impediment to foreign direct investment. They have attempted to block international firms from setting up shop in Nepal.

What can be done

If the association has outlived its utility, it should be just be shut down. This applies to similar associations in other professions. The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nepal needs to become a stronger regulatory body—one that works on a world-class curriculum and continuing education programmes. It needs to push for self-regulation and set a higher benchmark for the conduct of its members. The state of affairs in Nepali corporations, like the national flag carrier Nepal Airlines, is such a mess that it needs an international institute, contracted through a transparent bidding process, to fix the mess and then prepare a good group of Nepalis to take over in five years. International accounting firms should be allowed to operate in Nepal. They will demand (and attract) better resources, train them well, and prepare a cadre of professional chartered accountants that will be there able to aid in unleashing Nepal’s economic potential.

The Kathmandu Post: https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2020/02/25/the-cartel-of-accountants

11 Feb 2020
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Nepal can benefit greatly by embracing connectivity

February 11, 2020 No Comments

The recently concluded Kantipur Conclave had many lessons to give, especially for the ones willing to learn.

The two-day-long second iteration of Kantipur Conclave ended on Saturday, February 8. The greatest positive feedback the organising team got from conference veterans is that the event was world-class. In Nepal, where we love to complain about the things that do not work, this was a lesson that undertakings can be achieved in a way that meets global standards. The conclave had many lessons to give to the people who were willing to embrace it.

Along with the positive response, we were also alerted that in case Nepal wants to position itself as an international conference-hosting country, the airport management and infrastructure has to improve dramatically. There were a few interesting conversations at the speakers’ lounge on this subject. One of the speakers put it in an interesting way: high profile speakers and participants may know that there are great things ahead once they reach the hotel, but many will not be willing to endure the wait at the airport—with the old-school security checks and chaotic baggage claim—to get there. Global travellers who zip in and out of locations every week do not want to deal with the stress.

What was also interesting were how people responded to the new way of collecting questions for the panellists. At the conclave, all audience questions were collected through a mobile app. This was the only way the organisers could manage 10 sessions in a day and make it engaging for everyone watching. I had phoned a gentleman who I thought would be able to contribute meaty questions. But when he realised that he would not be able to stand up in the limelight while posing the queries, he decided not to show up to the conference altogether.

In Nepal, when it comes to events, people are very individual-focused. We see that many people do not come if they are not to speak. But what’s intriguing is that a few of the expatriates based here have also begun to absorb this trait. Listening is a difficult art and the patience to listen and internalise is something that South Asians have to learn.

It was also surprising to see the hall become crowded for the session with Nepal Communist Party Co-Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal. This, while the other discussions were not nearly as jam-packed. Why is it that even when one can attend for free—as the majority who had invitations did—most only choose to attend speeches by politicians? It still amazes me to see the level of fondness Nepalis have for politics. The same people who deride politicians and accuse them of creating Nepal’s challenging state also show up to such talks and clap their hands to the statements being made. Perhaps this can be the subject of a book.

Reimagining connectivity

For the first time in Nepal, we were exposed to a multi-faceted discourse around connectivity. Bruno Maçães brought with him the Eurasian view of looking at the region, and his views were striking. Maçães comes from Portugal (and is a former minister), where the population stands at just around 10 million. Yet, the Portuguese never think they are a small country. He said that Nepal, by comparison, would be the fifth-largest country in the EU by population, and sixth by area. But we are made to think that we are small, sandwiched as we are between two large neighbours.

C Raja Mohan articulated the future of South Asia, and this conclave, perhaps, will be remembered for recalibrating the discourse around what South Asia means. Andy Mok gave us a first-hand account of how China thinks and acts; Nepal needs to be proactive and not reactive with a country that plans for decades. But the biggest message that emerged out of the keynote session was that like the hotel business, a country’s prospects centre around its location. And it is not important only to have the right location—countries need to learn to leverage it, too.

The discussions were diverse and fascinating. The sessions even managed to analyse the globalisation of health challenges, like the current novel coronavirus outbreak. We had a chance to listen to amazing individuals like Sagar Tamang, a man who only came to Kathmandu from his hometown in the nineties and worked as he went to college, and who has since worked his way to lead a multinational team in a global market research company based out of Singapore. Such individuals will hopefully inspire many to rebrand themselves and hold themselves in higher regard.

Mohna Ansari questioned: ‘Why are we not proud about our country?’ Perhaps when we learn to be proud of ourselves, we will be proud of our country. The world of art and culture continues to be the biggest tools to help bridge and expand connectivity. As Namita Gokhale explained, the book trade is one of the most primitive ways to exchange knowledge; the way it has been taxed in Nepal is appalling.

The biggest takeaway from the conference has been that connectivity requires an open mindset. Many have dubbed me the walking LinkedIn. Yes, perhaps we can only reap from connectivity if we ourselves are open to connecting with people. People can connect cultures, societies, businesses and organisations. Countries that have people willing to further connectivity in various forms always benefit from it—history has proved as much.

https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2020/02/11/nepal-can-benefit-greatly-by-embracing-connectivity

28 Jan 2020
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The Jaipur Literature Festival still provides hope for an open society

January 28, 2020 No Comments

It would be great to see future editions having conversations on regional issues that are led by the youth.

The Jaipur Literature Festival is the world’s biggest literary event. Discord, colour and conversations have become the hallmark of this gathering which is rightly called a festival. Given that it has earned its place on the global literary map, it is lovely to be a part of the Jaipur Literature Festival 2020, especially when launching one’s own book.

The way the festival is managed probably merits a management case study. Teamwork, under the leadership of Sanjoy K Roy, has been able to mobilise thousands of people to make the event seem like a seamless, day-to-day affair. The recently ended edition was probably the last to be hosted at the Diggi Palace in Jaipur, a small hotel venue that now sees hundreds of thousands of people in the five days spanning the event. It is interesting to see that the Jaipur Literature Festival is expanding to more geographies, and hopefully, we will see an edition in Nepal soon.

The India I view through the lens of this event has been changing dramatically since the festival began some 13 years ago. The political debate in Indian television has become more polarised. This is also evident with what people are sharing on social media, too. The fact that people enjoy watching debates on channels like Republic TV speaks volumes about the society that is increasingly becoming prejudiced; where messengers of information spend much time debating without an objective. The challenge is to see how democratic and pluralistic societies will survive when a good part of the population is becoming jingoistic—nurturing a deep sense of cultural and religious nationalism. Regrettably, liberal voices are getting drowned in the majoritarian voices.

It is also interesting to see Sinophobia in India. The country is aware of how China is stepping into its neighbourhood and is attempting to control connectivity between Asia and Europe. Although India is envious of China’s pursuit, it is not sure how the former attempts to recalibrate itself to deal with this situation. But on the contrary, China is a country that focuses on long term vision followed by laser-focused action.

India loves to talk, and the television debates playing precedence to action is costing the country dear. Our southern neighbour has a massive population that works hard and dreams of getting the children a good education. Indians also have to compete fiercely due to the sheer size of the population. But perhaps the leadership in society and politics do not provide direction for the common Indian to fulfil their dreams.

Usually, in India, one is often bombarded with unsolicited advice on what Nepal should do and not do, I did indulge fully on advising India what to do and what not to do. At times, equality in a relationship is also about being able to provide advice to each other as we do in South Asia. Among the 200 sessions in the Literature Festival, I had the opportunity to moderate a session called Belt, Road and Beyond. The panel consisted of foreign policy veterans Shyam Saran and Manoj Joshi along with Bruno Maçães, who is regarded as one of the leading thinkers looking at China from Europe.

As Maçães says, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is not just an investment, it is a new order. This has forced countries to contemplate how they can grapple with an order that has been built on the foundations of state control, limited freedom of speech, controlled media and the techno-nationalist shaping of digital platforms that are continuously policed. Given that, the way India perceives China’s role in the world, its knee jerk reaction to political rhetoric around trying to intrude in India’s neighbourhood will be something that even Nepal will have to keep an eye on.

The biggest joy for me was that there is interest in Nepal, I saw this at the jam-packed hall at Brookings India in Delhi, where there was a panel discussion, along with the massive turnout at the book launch. Many were interested in learning more about Nepal and Nepali politics. While some were talking about how Nepal is changing in a positive frame, many also questioned whether the appointment of a murder suspect as speaker of the House would disrupt the progress.

The Jaipur Literary Festival provides a chance to people-watch and it always encourages one to ruminate. With more than 80 percent of the attendees being under 29 years old, it will continue to be a platform that attracts the young. The future of the Nepal-India relationship will be based on how these young people articulate this for themselves while looking at the future. Perhaps next year will find a panel of young people discussing bilateral issues specific to the Nepal-India relationship. We all can ideate to make this happen.

https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2020/01/28/the-jaipur-literature-festival-still-provides-hope-for-an-open-society

19 Jan 2020
Hindustan Times No Comments Permalink

There is a new Nepal. India hasn’t kept up

January 19, 2020 No Comments

Nepalis have moved beyond India in their engagement with the world. It’s time to recalibrate the relationship

A new geopolitical dynamic is taking shape in South Asia, and Nepal is at the centre of it. China, with its aggressive Belt and Road Initiative, is expanding its engagement in the region, as seen in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Maldives. Nepal is no exception. The visit of President Xi Jinping to Kathmandu in October was symbolic of the new recalibration of relationship. With a new trade and treaty signed with China, Nepal does not remain India-locked anymore.

But China isn’t the only player in town. The engagement of the United States (US) began in Nepal through aid in the 1950s. A Millennium Challenge Corporation grant of $500 million agreed upon a few years ago is now in subject of political controversy, as a segment of Nepali political opinion is seeing it in tandem with the Indo-Pacific strategy.

India, of course, remains a key partner. While the uniqueness of the relationship stemming from historical, cultural and religious factors remains intact, a key trend, which has gone relatively unnoticed in Delhi, is that Nepalis have moved beyond India in their engagement with the world.

Nepalis who have worked in the British Army now get British citizenship. There are thousands who get US citizenship through the diversity visa programme. Permanent migration to the US, Canada and Australia has increased. Nepali migration for short-term work in West Asia and Southeast Asia, along with medium-term work in different parts of the world, has grown dramatically. India was earlier the single-point of external contact, but now more and more Nepalis do not need to come to India for education, work, medical treatment or marital relationships like they did a couple of decades ago. This change in social dynamics is coupled with a transformation in the State apparatus, with a new federal structure creating seven provinces and 763 local government units with 35,000 elected officials.

But India, immersed in its own story, has not been able to keep up with these developments in Nepal. Older links are breaking down. Today, younger Indians who would have a generation or two ago seen Nepal as an obvious tourist destination, decide to lap up other possibilities in the region and beyond. Nepal remains a pilgrimage destination, but overwhelmingly for older people. This is reflected in politics too, where younger politicians on both sides lack the organic links that marked the past.

The state of domain knowledge on Nepal in India remains dismal, with only a few — now rather archaic — experts dominating the narrative. To be sure, the state of in-depth knowledge on India and its ongoing transformation is limited in Nepal too. There, a negligible percentage of men, above the age of 65, dominate the discourse whereas the demographic data suggests 50% of Nepalis are under 25 and 70% under 35. In the usual seminars and events on India and Nepal, there is a dearth of younger voices with fresh perspectives, as it mostly remains dominated by retired officials.

The change in Nepal’s economy has gone unnoticed too. It has been one of the fastest growing economies in the past couple of years with a real GDP of $34 billion and a GDP under the Purchasing power parity method at $80 billion. With the highest tax to GDP ratio in South Asia, the Nepal government budget is over $8 billion a year, with a good part funded by government revenues.

The dependence on aid has plummeted. Ironically, Nepalis spend more on education in countries where aid originates. For instance, Nepalis last year spent $1.3 billion in Australia on education while Australian aid to Nepal is around $ 22.5 million. With a population of 30 million, Nepal is also consuming more as land prices are increasing rapidly and remittances soaring. All of this makes it important for India to view Nepal with new lenses. It needs to engage in a manner in which it sees how Nepal can fit in its Act East policy in new frameworks such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal Initiative and Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation.

We need to recall that India-Nepal relationship flourished when Calcutta (now Kolkata) was the capital 100 years ago. For people in the bordering areas of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Bengal and Sikkim, Nepal has a special place for work, business, trade and different forms of social engagements. It will be important to take this regional — and sub regional — view and see how some of the provinces of Nepal can have a deeper and closer relationship with neighbouring states of India.

Finally, we need to revive more people-to-people relationship among the young through more visits and programmes, be it educational tour exchanges or short term fellowship exchange programs.

It is the youth of these two countries who will define the future of the bilateral relationship. An open moment exists for recalibrating the relationship between the two countries where so many things we have on both sides taken for granted. If people-to-people relationships prosper, societal and regional relationship will prosper and make better engagement at national levels between politicians and bureaucrats of both sides possible.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/there-is-a-new-nepal-india-hasn-t-kept-up/story-2Iyuyo6XWT4KyLjgJFzcZN.html

14 Jan 2020
Kathmandu Post No Comments Permalink

Nepal’s future lies in leveraging its geographic location

January 14, 2020 No Comments

‘Unleashing the Vajra’ attempts to view Nepal’s future through a different lens—one of wealth creation and not poverty alleviation.

When my first book, Unleashing Nepal, was released in 2009, very few books had been written on Nepalis by Nepalis writers, especially by those who had spent their time in the corporate world. I had just started my entrepreneurial journey with beed, a management consulting and financial advisory company, after spending two decades with Soaltee Group. At the time, my work was very much about how to make investments and management core to Nepal’s transformation, because there were plenty of opportunities in the country. Heavily influenced by lessons in management from Prabhakar Rana, who owned Soaltee, I started advising private and development organisations, particularly focusing on the need for transparency and professionalism.

I was fortunate to be writing with guidance from Manjushree Thapa, a successful author, with influence from Gurcharan Das, whose book India Unbound had started to shape the discourse on liberalism in India. Das also wrote the foreword to the book. A decade later, I have made an attempt to look at issues facing the country through some new lenses.

Megatrends

In my new book, Unleashing the Vajra, I have tried to explore Nepal while keeping five ideas on the forefront.

First, I wanted to continue the idea of unleashing its potential. As India and China are set to be the two big global powerhouses in 2040, Nepal has the same opportunities it did in the 16th and 17th centuries, when it prospered by being a link for the two countries. Second, in the past ten years, Nepalis have become more affluent and more educated, but problems like garbage, corruption and the lack of professionalism have become worse. There first has to be societal change if we are to see an economic transformation in the truest sense.

Third, I did not want to talk about government and politicians. Instead, the focus was on two sectors, private and development, to understand the context of the problems we face in Nepal. Fourth, borrowing John Naisbitt’s term—megatrends—I look at the issues relating to migration and remittances that have shaped the Nepali economy in the last decade. And finally, I deal with action points that have been talked about for so long; but a sense of urgency is necessary to convert vision into action.

Lessons from Nepalis

This decade has seen many books, written by Nepalis, emerge that talk about Nepal. This ensures there are enough local materials that form a part of the understanding, rather than being dependent on foreign writers and the narratives they provide. Digital platforms have given us more access to news and information. And being able to read and type in Nepali has changed how content is created and consumed. This has also helped shape stories, narratives, and lessons.

Nepal, with its population reaching 30 million, has a vast number of opinions to share. Further, migration has created an enormous diaspora population that consumes and produces content in Nepali. I saw an excellent opportunity to sieve through the discourses in Nepali and put together a lesson for the audience that read in English.

Travelling across many countries and interacting with Nepalis has given me a different perspective: how the people in various regions think about issues and how they also keep their interests in Nepal.

What’s in a name

Many people tell me that whenever they hear the word ‘unleashing’, they think of me. Perhaps this is my contribution to the narrative on Nepal—an alternative to the existing discourse. Therefore, I have kept the issues going by using another view to everything happening around us.

Take tourism, for example. I have attempted to view tourism from the lens of wealth creation rather than seeing it as a tool for poverty alleviation. High-end resorts bringing quality tourists will help create wealth for locals. In contrast, the current focus on homestays will just bring in a marginal increase in income at the cost of overcapacity, noise and environmental degradation. So, ‘unleashing’ continues to remain the keyword used to explain another perspective—to leapfrog exponentially rather than be a part of the status quo.

I chose the word ‘vajra’ as a symbol of indestructibility. Something that represents the Nepali power of resilience. While ‘vajra’ can have different meanings for people of different faiths and beliefs, for me, it is a symbol that denotes potential. It represents the dreams of the many Nepalis in the country and abroad to whom I dedicate the book. I want the phrase Unleashing The Vajra to become a metaphor for the unleashing of Nepal’s potential between India and China—by hitching our wagons into the two fast-moving trains to the north and south. 

31 Dec 2019
Kathmandu Post No Comments Permalink

Welcoming 2020

December 31, 2019 No Comments

Hope has to be followed by individual transformation—simply blaming the state won’t do.

Something quite rare happened in 2019. Only for the second time in the entire decade, a person who was prime minister on January 1 continued to hold the post on December 31. As the majority government entered its third year the perception of political stability continues. However, if you would ask the prime minister what the three big things he achieved in 2019 are, he would be hard-pressed to answer. While there was the Investment Summit, the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping, and loads of words spent on rail, ships, roads and social security, on the ground nothing much could be seen occurring. Visit Nepal Year 2020 became a feel-good hashtag, as even the CEO of Nepal Tourism Board did not get his term extended. Like many other concessions, people from the private sector who manage the gravy train continue to milk it; the campaign has received legitimacy from diplomats and international agencies, after all.

However, Nepalis, as always, showed great resilience and kept the hope alive—they started travelling more within the country as bandas and the fear of travelling were eliminated. The medal-winning Nepali sportspersons gave the country a lot to cheer about. Young Nepalis are also being recognised in many parts of the world for their contribution to diverse issues. More startups are coming up than ever before. With load shedding becoming sporadic, electricity is changing lives—and how shopfronts, eateries and streets look. Nepalis continued to travel out of Nepal for tourism and education like never before, despite Nepal Rastra Bank’s draconian foreign exchange policies. Yes, it has benefited the black market for foreign currency, which saw a great revival after nearly two decades; politicians probably get their cut from such underhanded deals.

The year will mark its end with the political parties gearing up for the 2022 elections. The senior citizen club of opposition Nepali Congress does not look like it will get its act together; leadership is unlikely to pass on to the next generation. The few new parties, that act and lead like the erstwhile royal-supporting parties, will have to reinvent themselves to really attract the young people who matter. The ruling party does have new leaders emerging at the local level—mayors, ward chiefs and provincial ministers who deliver. They will be driving the future agenda. By the end of 2022, we should be seeing some new faces coming up who will drive the new campaign in the ruling party.

The way private-sector cartels are fighting for their existence, we expect 2020 to be a year where some tectonic shifts will occur. The relevance of the cartels will be questioned, and law-making processes will receive more input directly from people involved in the sector. This will also be facilitated by the shift in the agenda of the development partners, from aid to engagement with the private sector. The development sector that provided legitimacy to the cartels and supercartels by partnering with them in the past have realised that they have been the biggest impediment to Nepal’s economic development. We have seen, in access to finance programmes, projects like Sakchyam that are directly working with banks rather than the cartel of bankers. This will proliferate. With 37 percent of Nepali exports now coming from the service sector, information technology and communication technology firms that have been the silent crusaders will lead. These are not part of any cartels and they work with international firms following international standards—something the cartels despise.

In the last decade, women have been coming to the forefront across all sectors. While there is a push towards women-led patriarchy as promoted by the president, real change, led by women that will change the future of Nepal, has also been occurring. Men are scrambling to learn how to make presentations to women who are making decisions, manage travel with women colleagues and work under women bosses. In rural Nepal, women that started to manage affairs—more from compulsion after men started to leave for jobs abroad—are now consolidating their leadership positions in society. We saw women journalists breaking many stories in 2019, and we will see more of them in 2020.

If Nepal is to really make 2020 a year heralding its decade of transformation towards 2030, it needs to revisit its priorities and think of these five things: First, Nepal needs to take diplomacy and foreign affairs seriously. As Hindu fanaticism is gripping India and new maps of India are emerging, Kalapani will start looking like a teaser. There will be more geopolitical play in the region; we have to be proactive, not reactive. Second, investments are a priority. But this has been paid lip service for too long without concrete action. Investment is about planning—let planning get priority.

Third, succession planning is something we need to take seriously, be it in small businesses or in the country’s executive branch. The speaker of the federal parliament was charged for a heinous crime. Still, no one has been appointed in this speaker’s place—this has impacted legislation seriously. Fourth, freedom of movement and freedom of speech have been the foundations on which Nepal’s transformation has been possible. This cannot be scuttled. Finally, we need to just change ourselves a bit to bring about a bigger transformation. This is true for basic actions such as respecting cleanliness, openness, transparency, accountability and responsibility. It is no use talking about how things are going wrong when you personally cannot correct small things at your end. Credibility begins at home. Let’s greet 2020 with some individual agenda of transformation.