Sujeev Shakya

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American musings

For the US to tell the world what to do about plastic waste, the credibility gap has to be managed first.

The United States is just recovering from a much-touted “red wave” where it was envisaged that the Republican Party would take over the Senate and the House, paralysing the government till the next elections. The elections showed that people can still be sensible not to let right-wing activists take over the agenda and bring about more division in a country that has not seen such levels of polarisation in past decades. This also means focusing on economic recovery, job creation and battling inflation.

Post-pandemic, after a very interesting episode last year, it was great to be back in the US. The little chivalry in people—be it opening the door or just letting people move—perhaps keeps this country going, apart from their general positive attitude. Random conversations in the elevator or a smile from a fellow walker in the park or just that driver letting you take your turn or cross the street are a good reminder of the attitude of the people. Of course, Nepal has a great brand recall here with people sharing fond memories of their trips, the documentaries they have watched or the books they have read.

Of course, there are key challenges the US has to manage. One is in its contribution to climate change, and the second is towards recovering from the impact of Covid-19. 

Managing waste

The discourse around climate change has not percolated to the daily life of people. Plastic forms the key part of any activity—eating, entertainment or packaging. There is a feel-good factor as long as there is a “recycled” logo on it. The discourse is yet to shift to how to eliminate the use of basic stuff like napkins or some packaging material. How consciously to use a cloth packing bag or even ensure one does not need a bag altogether. The shortage of staff at eateries has ensured more usage of disposable plates, glasses and lots of other stuff. The US produces 40 million tonnes of plastic waste per year, which works out at around 130 kg per person. That is around 40,000 times what is produced in Nepal while the US population is just 11 times that of Nepal. While there is a lot of feel-good factor about recycled plastic, only a fraction of the waste gets recycled. Therefore, to tell the world what to do in terms of managing plastic waste, be it US-based companies or institutions, the credibility gap has to be managed.

While there may be some commitments from this administration in contrast to its predecessor, it is unsure how there will be major policy implementation till basic citizen behaviour changes from consumption to waste reduction.

Post-Covid recovery

One impact of the pandemic is very visible. Many restaurants have closed and so have other establishments. Some of my favourites are gone. There are fewer people coming to work in-person, which means less space is rented and fewer people are turning up at eateries. Takeouts do well and inflation has also impacted spending. Establishments are also facing an acute shortage of staff and there is a tendency to work with fewer people. New models of cafes are asking cashiers to double up as servers, and online ordering is changing how orders are taken and delivered. There are more homeless visible in the streets, and Uber drivers tell you about the challenges they faced during the pandemic.

The bigger challenge is perhaps going to be managing the impact on mental health. People have switched jobs, they have done many things to cope with the pandemic, and there is a sense of fatigue. Educational institutions are figuring out how to design new sets of curriculum for students as the nature of the jobs are changing, and there is a need for more soft skills than technical training.

Younger people who have spent years online during the pandemic are finding it difficult to cope with the new in-person environment in many cases. The limitation on human interaction and reliance on the smartphone for communication, entertainment and content consumption has changed how one views basic human conversations or activities. Human behaviour is judged from the myopia of what content one is viewing. Cultural sensitivities are ignored, and a sense of divisiveness therefore prevails.

There has to be more self-reflection, and at one of the discussions at a college, we were ideating on a five-year undergraduate programme where there will be a gap year after two years for students to join a study abroad programme, engage in programmes that have more human interaction, and be able, as we say in coaching, to get into a learning mode instead of a judging mode. There is definitely more demand for learning programmes that help people reflect and engage in a sabbatical and plan years ahead. However, there is uncertainty what crisis will grip the world next. We have seen the impact of the war on Ukraine, and all eyes here are set on what China will do in the coming years as it removes travel and other restrictions.

The US and the world do not perhaps have the bandwidth to handle another crisis. So the key will be to see how countries can come together to manage the global economy and the lives of the people recovering from the pandemic in a better way. 

Read the full article on The Kathmandu Post: https://tkpo.st/3E3LOPD

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Reuters

How China sees the world

China will use Buddhism as soft power while moving towards global domination.

Last week, as the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party convened, there was keen global interest in what was happening there, the likes of which had not been seen before. Of course, there was the obvious, President Xi Jinping got elected for a historic third term, and now he has a new team that will chart the course in times of great geo-political turmoil. The last decade led by President Xi resulted in China becoming the global competing force against the United States. However, the decade also exposed the divisions within the US created by President Trump, the United Kingdom being caught in the Brexit maze and Europe being impacted by Covid and now the Ukraine crisis. 

President Xi, as I wrote in Unleashing the Vajra, became the custodian and delivered his version of globalisation as the UK allowed him to do so at the World Economic Forum meet in January 2017. More academic study is required on China, and not the sort of narrative that The New York Times likes to present, a lopsided view of the challenges China faces; but rather a more nuanced understanding of a country that has planned for decades to take the global centre stage in the years to come. 

Reading on China

I just finished reading How China Sees India and the World by former Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran, which is one of the most fascinating books I have read. Saran can read Mandarin, has much experience in diplomacy there, and continues to be the eternal student on China. He presents views that are not only useful for us to understand China from the perspective of India, but from the region and the world as well. There are three things he has written that we must ponder upon. 

First, there is the importance of the written word in Chinese culture with emphasis on calligraphy and imagery. In contrast, Indian and South Asian cultures are about the written word with oral traditions being passed on from generation to generation. Therefore, China has a “visual” culture while in India and South Asia, it is “aural”. He has written, “This difference in their civilisational trajectories has had its impact on how the two cultures perceive the world around them and how they interact with one another.” 

Second, it was Buddhism that connected China and India, and it was the exchange of scholars that led to a repository of Buddhist studies being built in China. Chinese records suggest about 3,000 Indian monks and teachers travelled to China in the first millennium to propagate Buddhism. China created its own “Buddhist Universe” which was limited to its own territory. The Buddhism practised in Southeast Asia came from India. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. I have also written how China will use Buddhism as soft power while moving towards global domination in key sectors by 2040-50. As China’s ageing population increases, with an estimated one-third of the people being over 60 by 2050, it is likely that spiritual engagement will increase too. We have also seen in the past five years how visuals of Buddhist practices have become more acceptable in China with even the president engaging in rituals and the events being broadcast live. 

Third, Shyam Saran talks about how China considers “India as teacher by negative example”, a perspective that I had never heard of before. The argument is that during the Opium Wars of 1839-42 and 1856-60, Indians were seen by the Chinese as “street-side enforcers of British rule”; and second, there was “deep resentment of the prominent Indian traders in cities like Shanghai who flaunted their wealth, gained mainly from the opium trade”. So, India became the “worst case scenario” for China. China also sees India as a country under Western influence and has never regarded it as an independent state.

Education system

Fourth, one of the key issues we all miss when we think about China is how they built up a such a prominent education system in a short span of time. It has now produced scientists, innovators and thinkers in quality and quantity. This perhaps not only created their biggest comparative advantage, but also a homogeneous world shared by Chinese across the country. 

While I continue to argue in my writings how India and China will be natural allies in this Asian century, the cracks that remain between the two countries can be understood well through this book. We are stepping into a China that has come under President Xi’s rule for a third term. Analysts see his new team pushing the agenda of global dominance through technology, and they do not expect confrontation with the US to slow down. They want to lead in future technologies, be it electric vehicles, communication platforms or artificial intelligence. They will work on currency next as they seek global dominance through their digital currency, like the US dollar did with physical currency. China shut the country to outsiders during the Covid-19 pandemic. The world is watching how they will move as they open up. Whether they will see the world differently is a billion dollar question to which we are all looking for answers. 

Read the full article on The Kathmandu Post: https://tkpo.st/3Ubojuu

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Delhi musings

Driving through the heart of town, you cannot but admire the trees on both sides of the road.

Thirty years ago, two issues were talked about when I spent a few months in New Delhi to sit for my final Chartered Accountancy exams. First, security, as there were roadblocks and shootings because of the Khalistan separatist movement; and second, pollution. The first issue is gone, but the second one remains as discussions around air pollution, noise pollution and pollution of the River Yamuna keep coming back. There are these topics to talk about, but there are also changes that the city has gone through. Spending the Dashain break here, I could reflect on a few.

The city is greener than it was 30 years ago. Especially driving through the heart of town, you cannot but admire the trees on both sides of the road and on the dividers that separate the lanes. Many of these were planted three decades ago when an aggressive Clean Green Delhi was launched. A similar campaign was launched in Kathmandu by Kathmandu Metropolitan City at the same time, but we can see what these two campaigns have achieved. In Delhi, thousands of trees were felled for building the metro rail and highways, but it seems there has been a reasonable effort to replant trees and plant more than they felled. Any city requires lungs to breathe, and green patches are the only way to keep the expansion of cities sustainable. There has to be space for people to walk, children to play, or that small open space to assemble when natural or human-induced disasters strike.

Young women omnipresent

Three decades ago, when you saw young women working at stores as associates or in restaurants, it was a rare sight, and they would have come from the Eastern Himalaya and north-eastern states. Delhi has a notorious reputation and perception regarding women, but things have changed. What has been overwhelming is how young women now are omnipresent in establishments that provide services—restaurants, retail stores of all sizes and fuel stations—working without the fear of being ostracised. We see more single women sipping coffee at cafes or enjoying a meal at a restaurant. Ride-hailing cabs and women-only compartments on the Metro trains have changed how they travel, and a general sense of safety through the perception of requiring extra precaution as a woman remains.

Maybe it was the festive season, but the streets seemed to have an overdose of posters, flex and banners with pictures of politicians and their sycophants. Perhaps, in Nepal, we tend to see this also after former prime minister Oli and his team emphasised splashing photographs everywhere. In Delhi, a store owner would have a poster of himself with the leaders wishing him happy festivities. It could be the culture of association with the privileged that South Asian societies like to see, or it is just pure sycophancy. The print media is splashed with pictures of leaders in advertorials and paid advertisements, so one cannot blame the media for being pro-establishment, whether federal or state, as more than 70 percent of their revenues can be attributed to spending by the establishment. When one talks about pollution, air pollution is a crucial issue that Delhi continues to fight; but visual and noise pollution is an irritant. You need meditative quality to survive the honking despite measures taken to curb the habit in Kathmandu. 

Capital of the future

One cannot but keep comparing cities. Keeping infrastructure growing and maintaining them is a big challenge. Some cities have done very well, be it Dubai or Singapore. So, keep wondering whether Delhi will have sidewalks for people to walk on and pedestrian crossings so they will not have to wade in the water when it rains. These are fundamental questions that people are asking everywhere in the world as cities are moving from being car-centric to becoming people-centric. The old grandeur of Connaught Place is returning. It is a great place for shopping and hanging out as the area is well connected by the Metro and public transport. Many activists complain that the city has been built for the rich and privileged. The people who make the buildings, roads and Metro, and those who work as domestic help, drivers and other service providers are seen as outsiders, and the squalor they live in is an eyesore. Perhaps this is the challenge this city, as the capital of the world’s second largest economy-to-be in a few decades, will have to manage. 

Will this come only from government rules and regulations, or has it got to do with citizen discipline? In a city where many people feel entitled to have chauffeurs open the door for them, and expect someone to carry their small notebook or bag when moving around, or still need that guard to salute and acknowledge their arrival and open the door for them, it is tough. Having a poor sense of accommodating others and a high sense of privilege when one is behind the wheel of expensive cars is a complex human trait to handle. Perhaps, the younger generations may shun this way of equating wealth and social status with privilege, and not feel necessary to get to the optics that have a lot to do with a colonial hangover. Yes, interacting with some young people, they share the change that is taking place and the hopes for the changes they expect to see. Let us live on this hope for this city with history, heritage and opportunities to explore excellent cuisine and conversations.

Read the full article on The Kathmandu Post: https://tkpo.st/3s7OyFT

Reflecting on events

The last couple of weeks saw a spate of events in Kathmandu, including many high-level visits. The decline in Covid-19 cases meant that one could decide to host an event with minimal chances of cancellation. Airports opened in the region, so more connecting flights. It was good to meet so many people in person after a hiatus of over two years and a half. These different events provide an opportunity to observe and reflect on many aspects of events. Here are some thoughts.

The pandemic pushed for innovation in how virtual meetings are held—better quality videos over lesser internet bandwidth. Many busy speakers do not have to fly across the world to speak for half an hour. They can join virtually. More people can join and participate from around the world. Artificial Intelligence driven cameras provide better quality, and one can add more cameras without cameramen running in front of you. The digital backdrops have improved, and software innovation provides better images and video quality. Nepal has adopted these well, which is reflected in the improved quality of technology.

When multiple events happen simultaneously, figuring out how one curates an audience and the target audience inside the room becomes essential. It’s finding the right quality of audience rather than quantity. There is no point in having a hall full of people chatting or spending their time on the phone browsing the world outside the room. The world over, specialist organisations are engaged to curate the right set of circumstances through partnerships and in Nepal too, and gradually this will be the norm.

Walking the talk

It’s appalling to see those who complain openly against men-only panels participating in them. Development partners in Nepal have signed a Diversity In Dialogue pledge emphasising diversity in panels and other dialogue platforms. Still, it is sad to see some of them not walking the talk. It is not that you cannot find people. For instance, at the Kantipur Conclave, we had Pooja Sharma moderating a male-dominated field of electric power. As a personal commitment, I have decided not to participate in any panel that does not have diversity. It is crucial to have young people and women with ethnic diversity.

Boju Bajai has developed an open-source platform to look for women speakers if you are not finding one. We need never forget our demographics—50 percent of the population is under 25 years, 70 percent of the population is under 40 years, and 50 percent is women. Working hard to ensure diversity goes a long way in making the discourse inclusive.

Despite multiple discussions during the planning phase, our love for using single-use plastic does not seem to wane. We began eliminating plastic a while ago and are getting more granular. No use of plastic, be it for delegate cards or tent cards. Plastic waste is created with materials supposedly necessary for branding, popularly known as flex. It is essential to substitute plastic with digital boards or encourage artists to display their relevant works. The single-use plastic bottle seems to dot climate change and sustainability programmes. It is also essential that the message filters through to all levels of team members. At one of the events, in the quest to not have plastic water bottles, I saw hotel staff complaining about the extra work of filling glass bottles by emptying single-use plastic bottles. When some climate activists comment on social media, rather than taking them seriously, organisers get angry and defend their actions.

Managing time is a severe challenge in Nepal, especially in a culture where people feel they are only important if they arrive late! Further, a situation like the traffic chaos and the challenges posed by the gridlock during the Chinese delegation’s visit does not help. On top of that, despite everyone having smartphones with a clock and different apps to manage time, we seem to go our own way. However, from experience and handling multiple events, people are happiest when something starts on time and ends on time. It is not about stopping being nationalist by respecting time, but respecting people by not wasting their time.

In a democratic secular Nepal, we still have an increasing number of rituals. From asangrahans(people having to formally take a seat on stage) to the traditions of garlands and khadas (scarves) as tokens of appreciation, it is something we do not do at our events, and many people can do away with them. Privilege rules as the important folks sit on sofas and mere mortals on different types of seats. Patriarchy rules as it is generally a woman who has to call a man on stage to speak or a woman who carries trays of garlands to be put on men by men. It is surprising to see even international organisations not wanting to demand changes to archaic rituals based on the caste system and patriarchy.

Nepal’s opportunity

We need to bring about change, as I continuously harp upon. As a neutral venue in South Asia with good air connectivity and more hotels and conference facilities, Nepal has great potential to emerge as a great conference destination as one can have many pre- and post-conference activities without travelling long distances. The city walks, quick sojourn, excellent cuisine and entertainment options at reasonable costs open many possibilities. Able vendors provide world class technical support. Nepal has many young people who specialise in diverse fields and can be part of panels or moderate them. Translation quality and facilities are getting better, and aided by virtual support from people sitting in any part of the world. Of course, improving internet speed and electricity supply in terms of quality helps.

Looking forward to more events in Nepal, and of course, last night, it was great to host Nepal National Day in Kigali to celebrate Nepal’s Constitution Day and to share our food, culture and beauty with friends in Rwanda.

Read the full article on The Kathmandu Post: https://tkpo.st/3xCmI81

Photo credit: Keshav Thapa
Photo credit: Keshav Thapa

Upholding the rule of law

For the past few weeks, social media has been abuzz with videos of unauthorised constructions being demolished. Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah has been leading the campaign to ensure that buildings have adhered to the approvals they have been given. Underground parking that thrived for years as shopping complexes, eateries and classy bars were taken down. Others were quick to follow the instructions. There were shopping malls and other buildings that took rent from stalls put up on public sidewalks which were torn down too.

People protested as they claimed they had done nothing wrong. Owners used political connections to stop the onslaught. There were criticisms that the action was unlawful, but in a country where stay orders can be obtained through the courts for a price, they could not wait. While the political parties could not come out to support the actions with the elections looming ahead, most of the public cheered. The comments on social media, and the way people circulated the videos with their comments, clearly showed that the Nepali people are not looking for big promises to be fulfilled by political leaders, but small actions like these. Actions that took on unauthorised construction were seen as a victory against corruption and leaders who promoted construction. In the day of social media, optics is important; and Balen, in combination with a go-getting valley traffic chief, delivered.

Politically connected

We would hope to see this movement expand to other parts of Nepal. The majority of Nepali citizens have suffered from the actions of a few. Next to my house, in an authorised furniture factory, is a shed built on open land that produces noise in a quiet residential area and many dust particles float around. Similarly, there is a café and centre that houses exhibitions and events with no parking facilities, and our small lane gets cluttered with the bikes parked there. Coming home from the office, as we turn left into Chakupat road, the bikes of folks coming to the eateries that do not have parking create jams. I remember 25 years ago, when the sheds were being built on public land taken by some private, politically connected guy on lease, I had suggested creating a beautiful tourist shopping centre with handicraft stores. But then, getting the roadside eateries were easier. Due to good turnover, they are willing to pay more rent, and of course, if you have well connected businesses as your tenants, you cannot bully them for sure. In my neighbourhood, it’s navigating such challenges each day, and perhaps it might be the case for many people across Nepal. Your mind space is taken up by these irritants and it is a super frustrating state of helplessness. We do not know where to go as none of the people in the concerned government offices are interested as they will not take on something that provides them with a source of income. Many Nepalis have such stories. The action of Balen Shah has given hope to many Nepalis that perhaps someone is taking on the challenges.

Of birta and jagir

The core thesis of my first book, Unleashing Nepal, was on the rent-seeking mindset and how it has deterred entrepreneurship. It begins with the jagir and birtathat were provided to people basically which were land grants. These people could make money by optimising land use, whether authorised or not. If we look around every part of the country, land next to religious places, educational institutions and public spaces are the ones that are used in a manner that creates the biggest challenges to parking, noise pollution and garbage generation. These lands were controlled earlier by individuals with a political connection to the palace, and later by clubs and organisations that are led by political leaders or have deep ties with people in politics. The maximisation of income can only happen if one can make use of the place against legal provisions. The job of the politician or elected leader was not to take on these people who are making unauthorised or illegal use, but to protect them. The senior leaders of political parties, by gracing the events of such organisations engaged in illegal acts, ensured long-term protection.

Similarly, when one hears that people paid Rs500,000 and used all their political clout to get a job as a guard at a public educational institution, it sounds bizarre. But what people do not realise is that once you get a job as a guard, there is that little store you can open at the gate of the educational institution and let a family member run it, which ensures that your investment is recovered within a year. You can see these shabby structures at the gate of every public educational institution. Now, if you oppose them, there are many socialists who will come and defend them. So you have protection from all sides to run your business from an illegal structure.

While we think this is a generational issue and maybe with young educated people, it will change, the young have not been different. When you see youths parking haphazardly, throwing trash everywhere and not following traffic rules, it does not indicate that education and age are the issues. It is a societal disease that needs a cure. Perhaps, the action led by Balen Shah provides some hope to a few, but it can only gain momentum if the mainstream political parties support it rather than using all their energy in trying to thwart the good deeds. The coming elections will also be a good litmus test to see if Nepalis would want the change makers or if they need old hags-led political parties to protect their illegitimate and unauthorised assets. 

Read the article on The Kathmandu Post: https://tkpo.st/3Bd8uwE

Preparing for COP 27

The preparation for COP 27 has begun in Sharm-El Sheikh in Egypt. Countries are preparing the agenda. Actually, preparations for some countries began as soon as COP 26 ended. For Nepal, we like to leave it till the last minute, and since this year COP is going to be held just a week before the federal elections, it is impossible to tell how the government will prioritise the issue.

The climate crisis gets attention whenever people experience extreme weather conditions or face natural calamities. This year, the scorching heat in Europe with rivers drying up, wildfires and flash floods have brought more global discourse. At the same time, the war in Ukraine has also divided the world like never before. Bilateral negotiations between China and the United States have become hostage to the geo-political squabbles between the two countries. As former president of the Maldives Mohamad Nasheed said at the Kigali Global Dialogues, the people who started the discussions at the first COP now have their children talking at these COP meetings.

The Climate Vulnerable Forum, whose representatives constitute countries from the Global South, have not been able to push the perpetrators to take corrective action. When it comes to the Global Climate Fund, while its reports show support to multiple countries, many countries have not been able to get access to funding for climate adaptation due to the long and stringent screening processes. The bigger discourse on renewables, especially solar, also gets complicated as people are worried about China’s control of the market. However, as Ritu Lal of Amplus Energy said, why didn’t people question oil production being concentrated in a few hands, but have issues when solar solutions are skewed towards China?

Challenges for Nepal

I have been writing about how it has become necessary to link our religion and culture towards the impact of climate change. While our religion and culture talk about purity, with clean rivers and the mountains being axis mundi of our lives, our religious and cultural practices have only generated more waste, exploited natural resources, and accelerated the impact of climate change. And concerning the issue of health, Nepal has the world’s highest lung disease death rate that can be linked to increased air pollution. Infectious diseases that breed on filth are on the rise as dengue and cholera have become a challenge. Waste management has become a political football that politicians enjoy playing. While segregation of waste and ban on single-use plastic has been mandated by laws and regulations, it is hardly followed. Environment day functions are celebrated using single-use plastic bottles, and the thought about not putting up plastic material flex at events is not something that passes through people’s minds. The rise in social and cultural spending has only generated more waste.

Since 2017, with the formation of local governments, there has been a spike in building ill-planned roads that have been more responsible for natural disasters like floods and landslides. In the quest to outdo each other, rural municipalities and municipalities are converting every open space into entertainment squalors bringing about major impact on land-use management and long-term challenges. This is not different from Himalayan towns and cities in India. There was a tweet from The Bhutanese editor Tenzing Lamsang on the overcrowding of Ladakh during the Indian Independence Day weekend and a reminder of how Bhutan has tried to manage its fragile ecology.

Assuming leadership

From 2014 to 2019, we hosted the Himalayan Consensus Summit and thereafter handed it over to the government of Nepal to grow into Sagarmatha Sambad (dialogues), but that again became a political football. Nepal is located in one of the most fragile ecological regions in the world, land linked to the world’s two most populous countries and those who have to live up to their commitments when it comes to mitigating climate change. Water will be the most contested resource in the decades to come, and Nepal’s water is connected to both its neighbours. The standoff between the two neighbours does not help. It is in Nepal’s interest to push to take on the leadership position. Nepal needs to push the agenda of how efforts have to be multilateral as problems do not see the limitations of political boundaries. Nepal needs to forge regional alliances to take up major issues. Nepal houses the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) that includes eight countries around the Himalaya including China and India. Such institutions need to work with the government of Nepal and recalibrate themselves to meet the changing needs.

For Nepal, this is also a long-haul issue and our project mindset has to transform to something where we think of a few decades. The timing is right as Nepal’s Green Resilient Inclusive Development (GRID) Action Plan is underway, and Nepal’s Climate Change and Development Report is ready. The agenda for this time would perhaps be to see how we move the next COP to be hosted in Nepal, and also develop Davos-style permanent platforms for the people who are thinking and people who are going to meet. 

Read the article on The Kathmandu Post: https://tkpo.st/3CiD5Ka

Will Nepal vote for change?

The election dates have finally been announced, giving much less preparation time than usual. Political parties are scrambling to find candidates, and potential candidates are already figuring out the price of an election ticket. In South Asian democracies, paying the party and its leaders to get an election ticket is an acceptable social practice, and no one will be ostracised for doing so. The political parties led by older men despised by most Nepalis are figuring out strategies on who to select (never elected) and how to manage fragile coalitions. All permutations and combinations between political oligarchies have been tried and tested, resulting in a similar result of deep hatred among the general populace. From the “partyless panchayat” to “party-full panchayat”, the general dismay has never changed, with corruption, nepotism, inefficiency, poor management and governance becoming words that never cease to go away. Against this backdrop, there is a lot of hope pinned on some incremental change, as we saw in the local election as it voted for 81 percent new faces.

Old issues are gone

Gone are the days when politicians could go to seek votes based on the time they spent in jail. A quarter of the voters are those who were toddlers or in pre-school when the Shah dynasty ended, so for them, forget 1990. Even 2006 is a distant past. You cannot fool a young Nepali who has internet access that sees how the world is progressing by talking about promised programmes that will encourage rearing goats or chickens. They know they can get a passport that will open the world to them. They are literate; they follow social media platforms which the oldies have no clue about, and their aspirations are like any other young person’s.

The issue of reversing federalism is a pipe dream as it will cost more lives and decades to change a structure that gives people access to resources and opportunities. Similarly, geopolitics has become very complicated, and it will not be easy just to be towing the lines of intelligence agencies or political parties north or south of the country. Covid-19 has exposed the inefficiencies of many countries in the world. Suddenly, when it comes to vaccination, despite a robust local government setup, Nepal ranks behind Singapore in getting both doses administered. Compared to countries in Southeast Asia that are limping back to normalcy, Nepali resilience has been remarkable despite all the challenges the government poses.

The next couple of years will also see more digitalisation which means human intervention that was the foundation of government services will slowly give way to automation with better platforms. This is what people would want to see happening, so recruiting more people for government jobs will be the last of the promises politicians can make.

Today, if you ask a young person what they want, their demands are simple. They want to get their driver’s licence and passports quickly and efficiently, and are willing to pay high fees. They want the process to obtain a no-objection certificate when they have to go abroad to study or a labour permit to go and work outside simplified. They want easy ways to send back money home, and when they return, they want an eco-system that encourages them to join or start a business. They want service when it comes to the occasional certificate of government that is required, the process of paying taxes and getting approvals and a financial eco-system that cartels of financial institutions do not dictate. Above all, they want better infrastructure and don’t mind paying taxes as long they are efficiently spent on infrastructural development.

Women want respect and equality in the real sense; gone are the days when some token reservations were going to work. Look around and see how women are omnipresent in all spheres of life. This election will be decided on how 50 percent of the voters, that is women, vote. In the local elections, we saw how women refused to heed the insistence of male members of the family like before but voted based on what they thought was best. The victory of Balen Shah in the Kathmandu mayoral elections is an excellent example of how results can be swayed.

What will change

Given the different patchwork of a coalition of convenience forming between political parties to protect the old men, it will be interesting to watch how the independent candidates will fare. Given an obvious hung Parliament, the key will be to elect 15-20 people across the spectrum, which will elevate the level of discourse in Parliament and enable healthy discussions on legislation and significant reforms. Let us not forget this Parliament will go down in history as one that did little in five years, leaving nearly 60 pieces of legislation languishing for years. When we look back at the Indian Parliament, among the 500 plus legislators, only a few set the agenda irrespective of the political party they belong to. Perhaps, we will have to plan for this, and the parliamentarians can rely on policy centres, think tanks and academic institutions to help them elevate the discourse.

Every election provides an opportunity to bring some change. Change is always incremental; hopefully, in this one, we can eliminate some of the faces that have spread negativity amongst Nepalis in the past decade. 

Read the article on The Kathmandu Post: https://tkpo.st/3A5bjiA

Take a long-term view

When one reads about the extension of the import ban on certain items, one begins to question the state of the Nepali economy. However, the restricted items form less than 2 percent of total imports. From local liquor cartels trying to stop the import of alcohol to auto dealers clearing their stocks, and grey market specialists finding ways to block legal imports, the race is on. Similarly, there are comparisons made in the Sri Lankan and Indian social media which have been going berserk in trying to pull China into the conversation, knowing very well that it had nothing much to do with the collapse of the Sri Lankan economy. Then there is the news of the enormous spending in the last month of the fiscal year, where nearly one-third of the government’s annual spending happened. Every combination of political parties has never swayed from the tradition of sizeable distributive expenditure in the last month of the fiscal year to keep relatives, party workers and construction cartels happy, and add a few million to their pot of slush funds.

The monetary policy is out; it takes a cautious approach to manage inflation and restrict credit flows. But banks are busy with their collusive behaviour keeping interest rates at current levels and not allowing them to rise as per market fundamentals. Bank promoters have interests in more than one bank as they invest in and borrow from another. They want to protect non-performing assets (NPA) and are keen to ensure poorly managed banks do not fail. The irony is that irrespective of the bank’s financial health, the high levels of NPA in some, poor governance and management in some, they all give you the same interest rate on fixed deposits and charge the same rates for loans. Given the same products and services from all banks, one wonders what is different between them. If there is a difference, it may be the brand of the vehicle the top management drives or the brand of the single malt whiskey they consume.

Vision 2030 document

With short-term governments and fragile coalitions, a long-term view of the economy has seldom been taken. In 2016, under the leadership of Swarnim Wagle (then a member of the National Planning Commission), a Vision 2030 document was prepared and what remains in cyberspace is the proceedings report of an international seminar in March 2016 on the Asian Development Bank website. Neither is the report available on the National Planning Commission’s website (as another government did it) nor on the Asian Development Bank’s website. I had worked on the private sector component of the report, and like many reports in Nepal, it has perhaps been permanently deleted from the recycle bins. The 25th issue of Nefport published by the Nepal Economic Forum in June 2016 on Vision 2030 perhaps remains the few documents envisaging long-term economic vision. The Vision 2030 document, prepared six years ago, provides a good framework for Nepal to move towards Reforms 2.0 to attract investments of around $7-8 billion each year to be able to meet the targets of a $100 billion GDP and a per capita income of $2,500.

In conversations with the International Monetary Fund, it is obvious that while there may not be any major challenges at this point because of the nature of the Nepali economy, we need to start thinking of how it can be transformed, not through remittances and consumption only, but by creating economic opportunities in the services sector by pushing exports, reducing corruption and managing the cartels. Taking the macro view is important, but this has not been anyone’s priority till now. Nepal, that has fixed its currency to the Indian rupee, has also benefited from actions of the Indian central bank to stop the Indian rupee from falling. Global inflation and a strong dollar will have their impacts. The situation in Ukraine, the standoff between China and the United States, the challenges in the China-India relationship and the crisis in Sri Lanka are not helping the fears to decrease.

The Nepal government has benefited immensely from the high tax-to-GDP ratio, and it makes a lot of spending irrationally with little accountability. The issues raised by the Auditor General in its annual Audit Reports on irregular spending, potential graft and other important matters have ceremonial value. While development partners are very keen to get their monitoring and evaluation right, they have little interest in the Auditor General’s report, which evaluates and grades the actual performance of the government.

All-party working group

In a country where it’s challenging to find apolitical thinkers and people labelled along party lines just because they accepted positions in particular governments, it would be beneficial for all if we could rise above petty issues and work as a group on a long-term economic plan for Nepal. These, once prepared, should be endorsed by whichever combination of governments comes to power. There are great individual thinkers and many more working in global organisations outside Nepal who are willing to volunteer and get involved. This will be music to the ears of development partners who are struggling to cope with the frequent changes in government. We at the Nepal Economic Forum are willing to host the first one and decide on the modalities. It is not creating another structure with chairs and secretaries, with older men lecturing young Nepalis; it has to be an inclusive platform for people who want to see a real transformation of Nepal in the long run. 

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Photo Credit: Shutterstock
Photo Credit: Shutterstock

Dubai unleashed

It is always amazing to see how cities develop, and a visit to Dubai always provides an opportunity to see how the city has been transforming each year. Infrastructure development is taking place rapidly, with more roads being built to connect newer areas. The metro train network, that began in 2009 amidst the big question of why it was required, today has become a lifeline for many people who commute to work, providing a better means of transport and taking off a lot of traffic from the streets. The development project lists are never-ending. In 2005-06, the construction industry stated that 25 percent of the world’s construction cranes are in Dubai. While the artificial island in the shape of a palm tree grabbed the world’s attention on the scale of new developments, it did not stop there.

There was the building of Bluewaters Island, which will be home to several resorts and an amusement park. The Deira Islands development included a 4 km stretch of waterfront, large enough to accommodate more than 500 yachts and boats. Then there is Dubai Harbour, a luxurious waterfront development that combines world class maritime facilities with the most advanced cruise terminals and the largest marina in the region. The list is endless.

People will come

When Nepal received about 400,000 visitors in 1995, Dubai received less than 50,000 tourists. At that time, there were about 2.4 million people in the United Arab Emirates. By 2020, Dubai’s number of visitor arrivals was close to 16 million. It aims to beat Bangkok by 2025 with 25 million visitors. The success of the Dubai Expo 2020 hosted during the pandemic perhaps pushes Dubai ahead of other Southeast Asian countries as it did manage to have tourism activities despite Covid-19. The expo went on for six months from October 2021 to March 2022, as per official statistics; the event registered over 24 million visits from 192 countries.

Dubai has gone on to build everything that would be the world’s biggest, tallest and other adjectives that would keep them in the leading position across different areas. They want to be the leader on all fronts, from museums to libraries to performance centres to conference venues. Despite the challenge of weather and an arid landscape, it pushes to create spaces using technology and innovation.

In the parking lot, one can find a U-drive electric car that one can unlock using an app, use it and park it at your destination and pay for the distance travelled, an innovative way of renting cars. For someone in the United States who has to fill their fuel tank at the fuel station, it would be shocking to hear that fuel in Dubai can be delivered to your house by a tanker run by a company that gives you an incentive to fill at home. Plastic bags are disappearing, and so are single-use water bottles. One can now spot these kiosks where people can fill in drinking water. The immigration processes are automated, and this time I did not have to see an officer when I was clearing my immigration; it was managed by technology. This is a city that does not tire of bringing about innovation by attracting the best companies and their best talents to the town.

The Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s and the Gulf War of the 1990s brought forth the strategic importance of Dubai. From fuelling planes to providing recreation and recuperation breaks to many serving in the war zone, it started to push its image of neutrality and safety. It is the gateway to the complicated geographies of West and South Asia and the Middle East. With Africa’s economic potential coming up in discussions in the global corporate boardroom, Dubai is seen as the safest place to operate from. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine exposing challenges around the global supply chain, food security and currency parities, a new paradigm is emerging where countries with the business approach will push ahead.

Dubai wants to position itself as the superpower of the Islamic world, but is becoming more liberal in its approach. Friday is no longer the weekly holiday along with Saturday, and the weekend has been aligned with the global Saturday-Sunday holiday routine. During Bakr Eid, unlike in many countries, one cannot sacrifice animals at home, but there is a guideline on what can be done and what cannot. Even during the holy month of Ramadan, one can find places to eat during fasting hours as there is a vast population of expats and tourists who are not fasting.

Nepalis in Dubai

Out of the country’s 10.2 million people, 1.16 million are locals and 8.92 million are expatriates. There are 32,000 Nepalis, representing 3.6 percent of the expat population, but this is growing. During the pandemic, 65,000 went to the UAE on visit visas in 2021, and many converted them to work permits, pushing the government to impose stringent restrictions. In restaurants, stores and other service businesses, we see more Nepalis as Indians and Pakistanis go up the food chain. And with the Philippine government putting restrictions on minimum repatriation, it has helped open up more jobs for Nepalis.

As tourist arrivals increase, new airport projects are being planned. There will be more jobs for knowledge workers as global companies will hire more people to be based there to look after the growing opportunities in the Middle East and Africa. Perhaps, for Nepalis, it is crucial to learn from the success of Dubai and the opportunity it presents. For the government, where learning is a complicated process, it may just begin with opening a consular office in Dubai to take care of the growing number of Nepalis living there since the numbers will only grow in the near future.

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Photo Credit: Shutterstock
Photo Credit: Shutterstock

Re-imagining Nepal’s workweek

Effective June 15, the government decided to revert to a six-day week. It’s not the first time the Nepal government has reversed its decision from a five-day week. Like many government decisions, it was superbly haphazard and confusing. It succumbed to the pressure of people not getting service. Even fuel stations shut along with other essential services. Being shut on Sundays was bound to attract public ire. Despite the recent rollback, Nepal must move to a five-day workweek with proper homework, study and recalibration of working practices. We must organise our schedule to work 40 hours a week and get a much-needed two-day break. Why can’t this be possible for everyone working in Nepal? What do we need to do to ensure that this happens? Indeed, no one size fits all, and the nature of work will mean there will be people working different days of the week, but enjoying a much-needed break from work.

Concept of holiday

The concept of a five-day week is very new in the world. In the industrial United States, it was only in 1926 that Henry Ford introduced a five-day week without a pay cut. And in China, it was only in the last decade of the 20th century that it decided to move to a five-day week. More than 95 percent of the world generally follows a five-day work week, putting in between 40 and 48 hours of work. Even in the Islamic countries, they are reconciling to a two-day break, generally Friday and Saturday, but recently, the United Arab Emirates has moved to a Saturday and Sunday break with an extended hour of lunch time for prayers on Friday.

In Nepal, it was only during Juddha Shumsher’s reign that a Saturday holiday was introduced. Till then, people working in government offices got only “ekadasi” (11th day of the lunar fortnight) off. And after the restoration of multi-party democracy, in trying to be inclusive, Nepal went on to have the highest number of holidays and currently has 31 days, which is still one of the highest numbers in the world. In terms of productivity, despite working six days a week, Nepal’s productivity is low due to short daily working hours. When winter timings are introduced, government offices work only six hours a day or just 35 hours a week, and many organisations follow this low productivity schedule.

At a presentation in Rwanda, when asked about our government’s working hours, they expressed disbelief as Rwanda follows an 8am to 5pm schedule and is off on weekends with only essential services running. Therefore, it is crucial to link the work week with productivity. Like many international organisations, we should follow a five-day, 40-hour week, 9am to 6pm, with an hour’s break for lunch. In my over 30 years of career, this is how it has been, and I would like to recommend everyone to follow this. Like in the hotel, airline or many other industries, it does not mean the two-day break has to be Saturday and Sunday. It is to plan operations to ensure the processes are generally 24/7 or each day of the week, but people work five days a week and take two days off.

Concept of leisure

If you ask an average Nepali how they spend their holiday, the answer would generally be taking care of household chores, but more importantly, managing social visits. While the new generation has taken to outdoor activities like hiking, running, cycling and other sports during the weekend, my memory of holidays for Nepalis (even outside Nepal) are playing cards and indulging in eating and drinking.

Leisure is men-centric, and the concept of holiday and leisure does not consider the growing number of women joining the workforce. At Beed, we ensure that the day after Vijaya Dashami or Bhai Tika is a holiday as it is a day that women team members need a break from their work during the festive days. A two-day weekend is critical for working women as they are increasingly under pressure to juggle work and families.

With nuclear families on the rise and many family members settled abroad, the pressure on working women has increased like never before. At the sessions I conducted during the pandemic on coping mechanisms, women broke down in virtual meetings sharing the pressure of managing online school, online work and household chores during the lockdown. If we have not learned from the pandemic, no other disaster will teach us more.

Government services can go online like in Rwanda; the digital government platform Irembo has made it easy for people to receive government services. Why can’t we apply for our passports, driver’s licence and other government documents online and just be delivered to us? Each ward office that has a computer can be the place to take biometrics and point for the physical interface. Online payments and other services make it easier and eliminate the need for physical offices.

We require a more forward-thinking approach, looking at how the workspace will be in the future, what services people will need, and how they will be delivered. Hopefully, like that intelligent thinking unknown bureaucrat who pushed passports to be issued from districts and changed Nepal’s world of migration and remittances, there will be someone who will bring about much-needed rules on how Nepalis will work. 

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